They arent meant to deter the US and Israel like some Alt-Media observers believe.
Iran, Russia, and China are carrying out the latest round of theirannual joint naval drillsin the Strait of Hormuz right as Trump isreportedly consideringwhether to authorize large-scale military strikes against the Islamic Republic amidst the USlargest regional military buildupsince the 2003 Iraq War. The timing made some observers in theAlt-Media Communityspeculate that Russia and China dispatched some of their warships to Iran under the cover of their annual drills in an attempt to deter the US and Israel.
For as much as some might want this to be true, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskovdeniedit and said that These are planned exercises, and they were agreed upon in advance. This doesnt mean that they arent helping Iran in other ways since reports have circulated on social media alleging that their military aircraft have paid quite a few visits there in recent weeks. Nevertheless,indirectly helping Iranahead of a potential conflict isnt the same as directly participating in it, which neither of them will do.
Regardless of whatever some Alt-Media observers might believe to be Russias and Chinas interests vis--vis Iran, the precedent of last summers12-Day Warwhen Iran was turned into a nationwide bombing range for the Israeli Air Force proved that they wont risk World War III for its sake. Russia also didnt militarily intervene to help the Iranian-led Resistance Axis,especially its Hezbollah centerpiece, either. None of this should come as a surprise considering how risk-averse Putin has proven himself to be.
After all, he only authorizedtwo outmatched retaliatory escalationswith the Oreshniks in response to many times more Western-backed Ukrainian provocations that include thespring 2024s Crocus terrorist attackandeven trying to kill himlast December, thats how worried he is about risking World War III. It was therefore never conceivable that hed throw four years of caution during thespecialoperationto the wind to risk World War III for any other countrys sake if he wont even do it for his own.
Thats not a criticism of Putin, its only an attempt to draw attention to how hes neither themonster, madman, nor mastermindthat his foes and friends respectively perceive him as being. Putin is the consummate pragmatist, and thats why hell never risk World War III for any other countrys sake and will only do it for Russias sake if he truly feels that he has no choice. Even in the worst-case scenario of Irans defeat and subsequentBalkanization, Russia will still survive, and he knows this.
Thats not to say that its interests wouldnt be harmed since Russia relies on Iran as the irreplaceable transit state along itsNorth-South Transport Corridorwith India for conducting trade between them, but just that the consequences would be manageable, including the security ones. Its the same for China, which has no foreign military experience since its brief 1979 war with Vietnam that most observers consider it to have lost, and it too wont even risk World War III over Taiwan (at least not yet).
The takeaway from the latest Iranian-Russian-Chinese naval drills is therefore that theyre simply a symbolic exercise, not evidence of strategic coordination between these three Great Powers aimed at jointly deterring the US and Israel, against whom neither Russia nor China wants to wage war.Once again, those two can and maybe already are indirectly helping Iran with defense equipment and/or intelligence, but theyre not going to fight the US and Israel in its support if war soon breaks out again.
Andrew Korybko
