HONG KONG: China closed 2025 with its largest trade surplus on record, underscoring how exports to the rest of the world have cushioned the impact of sharply reduced shipments to the United States amid renewed trade tensions under President Donald Trump.
The surplus surged nearly 20 percent to almost US$1.2 trillion last year, according to data released Wednesday by the government, even as higher U.S. tariffs weighed on trade between the world's two largest economies.
China's exports rose 5.5 percent for the full year to $3.77 trillion, customs figures showed, helped by Chinese automakers and manufacturers pushing deeper into overseas markets. Imports were flat at $2.58 trillion, compared with a trade surplus of more than $992 billion in 2024.
Momentum strengthened toward the end of the year. In December, exports climbed 6.6 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms, beating economists' expectations and accelerating from November's 5.9 percent rise. Imports in December increased 5.7 percent year-on-year, up from 1.9 percent in November.
China's trade surplus crossed the $1 trillion threshold for the first time in November, reaching $1.08 trillion for the first 11 months of last year.
Economists expect exports to remain a key pillar of growth this year, despite mounting trade frictions and geopolitical strains.
"We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026," said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.
Exports to the U.S. fell sharply for most of last year after Trump returned to office and intensified his trade war with China, but losses were largely offset by increased shipments to South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe.
For the whole of 2025, exports to the U.S. dropped 20 percent, while shipments to Africa jumped 26 percent. Exports to Southeast Asia rose 13 percent, to the European Union eight percent, and to Latin America seven percent.
Analysts said strong global demand for computer chips, electronic devices, and the materials used to make them helped support exports. Overseas car shipments also increased during the year.
Robust exports have helped keep China's economy growing at an annual pace close to its official target of around five percent, but have also fueled concerns abroad that an influx of cheap imports is undercutting local industries.
China faces a "severe and complex" external trade environment in 2026, Wang Jun, vice minister of China's customs administration, told reporters in Beijing, though he said China's "foreign trade fundamentals remain solid."
The head of the International Monetary Fund last month urged China to correct economic imbalances and accelerate a shift away from export dependence by boosting domestic demand and investment.
A prolonged property downturn following a crackdown on excessive borrowing has continued to weigh on consumer confidence and domestic demand, after triggering defaults by many developers.
While China's leaders have prioritized higher consumer and business spending, policy measures so far have had limited effect. Recent steps included trade-in subsidies encouraging purchases of newer, more energy-efficient appliances and vehicles.
"We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid," said Rong of BNP Paribas. "In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year -- in particular, the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods."
Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis, expects China's exports to grow about three percent in 2026, down from 5.5 percent in 2025. With imports growing slowly, he forecasts China's trade surplus will remain above $1 trillion this year.
